Tensions are rising between Washington and New Delhi as former U.S. President Donald Trump threatens new tariffs on Indian goods in response to India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, is standing firm, calling the move “unjustified” and defending India’s energy strategy as an economic necessity.
As global geopolitical fault lines continue to shift, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is under renewed pressure from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is demanding that India halt its imports of Russian oil. The sharp warning, delivered by Trump during a recent CNBC interview, includes a pledge to raise tariffs “substantially” on Indian goods within 24 hours, marking a potential flashpoint in U.S.-India trade relations.
India has consistently positioned itself as a neutral party in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, balancing its historic ties with Moscow and its strategic partnership with Washington. Despite mounting Western criticism, Delhi has defended its oil imports from Russia as a purely economic decision aimed at meeting the demands of its booming economy and 1.4 billion-strong population.
Russian oil now accounts for 36% of India’s total crude imports, making Moscow its top energy supplier. The discounted rates on Russian oil have offered India a critical lifeline amid rising global energy prices, allowing the country to stabilize domestic fuel costs and maintain economic momentum. Experts note that India’s limited alternatives—after being forced to stop imports from Iran and Venezuela due to U.S. sanctions—make a sudden shift away from Russian oil highly impractical.
Amitabh Singh, a senior academic at Jawaharlal Nehru University, points out that India’s energy decisions are driven by commercial imperatives, not geopolitical allegiances. “There is very limited space in which the Indian oil economy can operate,” he said, adding that expecting Delhi to make abrupt changes would risk triggering global oil price spikes.
Critics of India’s stance, including the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, argue that Indian refineries are re-exporting Russian crude in the form of refined petroleum products to Western markets—including the U.S. and Europe—thereby undermining sanctions against Moscow. However, under current rules, refined products are exempt from such restrictions, creating a legal gray area that has so far benefited India’s export economy.
India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, imported over $86 billion in refined petroleum products last year, positioning it as a major player in the global energy trade. Delhi argues that cutting off Russian supplies would not only hurt its economy but also contribute to higher global energy prices—something American consumers would feel at the pump.
Despite the friction, India continues to express its willingness to engage in dialogue with Washington. Still, Modi’s administration has made clear it will not make hasty changes under pressure. India’s foreign policy, particularly under Modi, remains guided by strategic autonomy and long-term national interest—an approach that often defies external expectations.
While Trump once touted his close ties with Modi, the tone has markedly shifted. His recent statements accuse India of fueling Russia’s war effort and question the strength of their bilateral relationship. Nevertheless, Modi appears focused on managing the situation diplomatically while safeguarding India’s energy security and economic stability.
